Future Projections of Precipitation and Temperature in Northeast, Thailand using Bias-Corrected Global Climate Models

Abstract

The increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) has resulted in global climate change, with the Northeast region of Thailand experiencing the highest rate of change. This poses significant risks of drought and its impact on crop yield production. To better understand the potential consequences of climate change and devise suitable adaptation strategies, this study aims to project precipitation and temperature data for Northeast Thailand from 2015 to 2055, using bias-corrected global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The results showed that the annual precipitation and temperature increased from 2015 to 2055 under both RCPs. The annual average (minimum-maximum) of precipitation from the CanESM, GFDL, MIROC5, NorESM, and ensemble mean from four models under RCP4.5 were 1,238.83 (904.28-1,629.70), 1,227.82 (865.49-1,721.31), 1,312.78 (876.60-1,616.38), 1,350.21 (985.55-1,625.00), and 1,282.41 (1,088.43-1,461.49) mm and RCP8.5 were 1,267.96 (864.24-1,712.86), 1,222.20 (863.79-1,835.43), 1,294.07 (843.04-1,752.41), 1,353.14 (1,059.50-1,827.23), and 1,284.34 (1,116.55-1,541.63) mm, respectively. While, those of temperature under RCP4.5 were 29.27 (28.15-30.35), 29.59 (27.98-31.20), 29.12 (27.65-30.70), 28.09 (26.96-29.14), and 29.02 (28.08-29.90) °C and RCP8.5 were 29.50 (28.12-31.40), 29.68 (28.23-31.50), 29.11 (27.51-30.26), 28.37 (27.11-29.88), and 29.17 (28.08-30.66) °C, respectively. These findings suggest that the annual precipitation is lower under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5, while the temperature shows an increasing trend under both RCPs. Therefore, it is evident that climate change will manifest differently in Northeast Thailand, depending on local contexts and the measures implemented today. Understanding the impacts and risks of future climate change at a local scale and identifying adaptive solutions pose significant challenges for the future. © 2023, Chiang Mai University. All rights reserved.